MKennedy Nucaps Start

NUCAPS notes: Computed LI values either did not appear or were computationally irrational-- unusable for 700-300 MB, would not appear as a single computation and therefore required a pressure level differential where ie. 850-700 mb was a required selection.

Possible anamoly or true most unstable CAPE MAX near Newton in NUCAPS Gridded at 1000-500 Most Unstable CAPE---comparing to East Mesoscal All-SKY LAP CAPE where only minor gradient seen.

Checking the Model Data for this possible CAPE an0moly showing HRRR upper left, RAP 13 Lower Left, with ARW upper right and lower right GFS. The right panel models indicate greater intensification near Newton and Downstream of Most Unstable Cape anomaly/gradient. See the images below at 00Z & 18/19Z for given model 4 panels.

Waiting on storm development to view event possibilities.


In the meantime, the RGB Day Land Cloud Convection is doing well with GLM highlighted in lower right panel as the developing anvil corresponds to growth and intensification.

Continuing to monitor the pre-convection environment over South Central Illinois near Newton, the RGB view of the Day Cloud Convection Procuct combine wtih the Derived GOES Lifted Index. Newton reads -3.2 no GLM data yet for this time frame of 21:20 Z with models suggesting development later toward 00 z in this location.

21:33 Z showing RGB Dust and ENI 5 minute data with one minute update Lightning, gradients around MCS and developing convection shown well

NUCAPS loading -10 to -30C temp lapse rates shows a white/gray upon transparency adjustment background-clear image more helpful to overlay on Water Vapor or other Sat. Imagery. When monitoring Newton again now looking back at 18Z Lapse Rates between -10 and -30C we can see a similar increase over Newton except in this instance,the gradient is not as pronounced on the Most Unstable Lapse Rates. Here we can view a ramping of the gradient in this region suggesting the data may not be compromised in the Most Unstable Gradient.


The GLM Looping over GOES 16 East Mesoscale 2 Clear IR Channel 10.33 um allows us to see storm propagation and matches the intensification along this warned line of storms in Central Illinois which verified with winds of 70 mph

 

Another interesting possible use of the Split Water Vapor with the radar overlay shows in Newton, selected here as the home location a gradient over this county that may help to intensify cells in this location or just downstream. 

 ++++split Water Vapor Loop gif would not load++++