IWX (more analysis) with CI and All Sky LAPS

Looking at all sky LAPS, there is a clear gradient of two separate areas of higher instability. Values vary between the models and the sky LAPS, but wanted to look at how the LAPS data looks compared to GFS (top right),  HRRR (top left), and Layer H20 PWAT from all sky LAPS.

One reason I am looking at the PWATs is to also gauge the southerly fetch/LLJ. I can see two split areas combining into one. It also looks like where the all sky LAPS is definitely highlighting the same maximum areas as the all sky LAPS which is to be expected given it is derived from GFS in cloudy areas.

Turning to the convective initiation product. Did see where the Severe CI is showing higher probabilities over the western portion of the ILX and LOT forecast areas. That is also coinciding with higher Total Power in GLM but not sure if they'll strengthen to severe.  They are entering that area where the instability increases over western portion of ILX and LOT forecast areas. Will keep watching to see if these storms realize the instability shown.

More to come...

Supercell