The CI Probability product is a bit of a "noisy" display with a lot of seemingly "random" areas of CI Probability percentages that percolate up and down, disappear, then reappear, etc., but...
If one filters through the noise and pays attention to areas where 2-3 (or more) consecutive frames display a CI probability of ~ 50-70% (or higher), it seems that convection with reflectivity values of at least 35 dBZ is more likely to form in those areas.
Maybe it would help to get rid of values below 50% on the color/percentage bar? That would filter a lot of the noise and make it a more useful product.
Also, perhaps using a different time-step (is 5 min too long or too short? I don't know...) or tweaking the algorithm a bit might help distinguish those areas more likely to experience convective initiation.
- Thomas Bell
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