2030Z: I issued a warning on a storm near Hill City, MN primairly based on data from ProbSevere. I was started watching the storm when ProbWind values got above 70%. The storm was in a solid environment & GLM data as well as cloud top cooling trends from IR indicated the storm was steadily maintaining its intensity. Once ProbWind values showed an increase to 80% & MESH values continued to increase over 1" I decided to issue a SVR for 60 mph wind & 1.5" hail. Shortly after issuing ProbHail & ProbWind both continued to increase & MESH increased up to 1.22"
What I found interesting was that the storm to its north seemed to look stronger with higher values of GLM flash extent density & total power, as well as higher reflectivity values. However, ProbSevere values were much lower with this storm with ProbWind the only field of interest up around 58%.
GLM 4 panel animation:
MRMS RALA/warning animation:
Peter Sunday
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