We've evaluated CI Probability products this week, with some mixed results, but that has me thinking (which, as my wife will attest, is usually not a good thing)...
Have CI developers noted any correlations between the % shown and how quickly cells with reflectivity values > 35 dBZ develop?
One of my co-evaluators noted a small area of 90% CI Prob yesterday and within a few minutes, a strong cell developed.
I have observed several areas where there were consecutive CI Prob % in the 40-70 range within which convective cells developed, but that process took a little longer, closer to 20-35 mins.
It may seem intuitive that a 90% CI Prob area would generate convective cells quicker than an area where the CI Prob potential is in the 40-70% range, but is this really the case? Maybe this is one use for the CI Prob product that could/should be explored further.
And, how long does an area need to be highlighted with a decent (50%) CI Prob before a forecaster should be confident enough in the development of a cell with reflectivity values > 35 dBZ? Our evaluation group hasn't been able to answer that question during this week of testing.
- Thomas Bell
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