CWA TomClemmons FSD 05-08-2018

Synopsis: Upper level Shortwave trough to the NW of the FSD CWA. Forecast has this system moving through the forecast area during peak heating. Sfc low is moving into the wester part of the the forecast area near KSFD with the warm front running east along the MN/IA border with the cold front extending south from KMH. The greatest probability of Tstorms and SVR will be along the cold front and warm front later this afternoon and into the early evening hours.


 Have the GLM Total Energy product loaded up and overlaid on the 10.35 um Clean IR, noticed the greatest are of GLM Total Energy was right along the warm front along the southern edge of the anvil shield.
 

NUCAPE Sounding data came in at 18z. Polled two areas south of FSD CWA that will advect into the area later this afternoon and would feed the area along the front with unstable air. This sounding was very similar to the other sounding taken NW of this sounding. This sounding is showing between 1400 to 1600 CAPE values to advect into eastern portions of the FSD CWA this afternoon. Wind profile is suggested of organized mulicellular storms.

Here is a comparison All-Sky LAP Insatiability Indices moving into the western part of the FSD CWA and the more pronounce unstable area over northern Missouri and southern Iowa. Now compared SPC CAPE (RAP model) at 2000 UTC 28 minutes before. Notice very similar maxi-ma in the same areas in both the LAP data and from the SPC CAP

All-Sky LAPS PW images indicated increasing moisture pooling up to the east of the low between the cold front and the warm front. The first image is from 1928 UTC followed by the 2128 UTC image. Notice the increasing trends of mid-level moisture in the eastern part of the FSD CWA. Would expect storms moving into this area to have more moisture and instability to work with. Remember earlier NUCAPS, soundings to the south, that eastern FSD CWA should be seeing increasing low to midlevel lapse rates.

Built a 4-Panel display using GLM Total Energy, GLM Average Flash Area (bottom left-right) with 5-min and 1-min update. Also on the upper panels used 0.5 Refl to display NLDN 5-min with 1-min update. Also overlaid was the CI Probability with that product upper left. Upper right, had ENTLN with 5-min and 1-min update. As another overlay we had CI Severe Probability, along with GOES Clean Window 10.35 um. I felt this was a good situation awareness display for me to monitor new areas of developing convection.