NUCAPS, RGB, & GLM Iowa Severe May 8 Week2 HWT

In Advance of the developing severe threat this was notices on NUCAPS comparison to Total Precipitable Water

RGB Cloud Convection Product with NUCAPS Improved Latency and Goes Total Precipitable Water shows close match with actual sounding. 1.09" in NUCAPS Sounding, While Total Precipitable Water is showing 1.21" Northern Nebraska NUCAPS point sounding showing .99 with Total Precipitable showing 1.10" ---Modified Nucaps shows only tenth of an inch added difference with this one from .99" to 1.00" and with the other sounding in Southern South Dakota it increased also to only 1.10 from 1.09 for Nucaps Sounding with precipitable water at 1.21"

Initially, I experienced difficulty loading the ALL Sky LAP CAPE product, but once loaded in a separate window the product arrived without issue.
Then, I compared NUCAPS Modified Points on the Skew-T with the ALL Sky CAPE image time matched to 18:58 Z. This indicates a slightly lower CAPE of values between 50-75 on the soundings than the ALL SKY CAPE image, but the data overall appears to correlate well in this time match.

        The Water Vapor Imagery 4 panel displays shows significant available moisture in mid-level and upper-level regions over the Dakotas and Iowa. Viewing the lower level Water Vapor at the GOES East Conus 7.34 low-level water vapor imagery IR band, the dryer surface level conditions are visibile along the Iowa/Missouri border. This is also an area where an outflow boundary exists and where at 22:49-22:52Z there is a rise in wind damage probability using the Severe Probability Index, but notably no indication of increased CI or any cloud identified with the CI probability product. See the two 4 panel images below.

Below is the GLM Total Energy product data overlaying CI with the Severe Prob product. The GLM seems to be a better indicator of the most active and developing potential for areas or storm clouds with potential for severe threat than the CI in this brief window. This is based on the 21:3Z views through 22:52Z during which time the storms did not reach severe status, but did show strong convection and more organized activity at 22:52Z than the CI product suggests expecially in the Western Iowa and Northern Nebraska region.

 The slide below shows the composite radar Image from 23:12Z with the best rain near the GLM Total Energy indicated storm areas from the 22:52Z image shown above.

MK