A more subtle severe weather threat is expected relative to the past couple of days. Convection to the west is spreading east into the BGM area at the start of operations. Overall instability is weak with observed and SPC analysis CAPE ~500-1000 J/kg at best. Shear is strong and storm motions may be on the order of 50kt owing to a severe wind threat. The southern half of the BGM area seems most at risk for severe weather with better instability south of a boundary slowly sinking south with time.
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