AllSkyLAP CAPE Underdone in Eastern WY & SE Montana

[19:30 UTC] We have set up shop in the Billings, Montana CWA today and will be monitoring development of convection south/east of our immediate CWA as it progresses northward into the eastern part of our area this afternoon into this evening.

A first look at the environment, and more specifically CAPE, showed that the AllSkyLAP CAPE and GOES-dervied CAPE were both quite a bit lower than being depicted on SPC mesoanalysis. AllSkyLap CAPE in eastern WY showed CAPE on the order of 100-200j/kg while GOES-derived CAPE was even lower. Meanwhile, SPC mesoanalysis was showing a bit more unstable environment of 1000-1500 j/kg in these same areas. Still waiting for an updated NUCAPS pass to make a comparison on, but given the current environment, would tend to favor the more unstable solution being shown on SPC mesoanalysis.

Across our immediate area (eastern CWA), AllSkyLap shows CAPE on the order of 800-1000 j/kg, but mesoanalysis would suggest about double this amount. Will see if discrepancy resolves itself through peak heating hours.

Fig. 1: AllSkyLap CAPE showing an unrealistic minimum in CAPE across eastern WY at the current time (18:28 UTC)

Rosie Red