Couple of boundaries out there across the the Minnesota/Dakotas this afternoon. First one is a tough axis pushing its way into eastern ND/SD. A second boundary (aka warm front) is draped southeast across Minnesota. The trough is seen with a wind switch from southerly to west-northwest in the Dakotas, with the warm front evident with a stark contrast in dewpoints from southwest to northeast across Minnesota. Some stable low level clouds have been noted across southeast ND showing we remain plenty stable at the surface as of right now. Some CU are starting to form farther south in the warm sector showing the moisture is starting to work northwards. Plenty of sunshine is noted in the warm sector that should aid in destabilization later today.
GOES-16 stability indexes look to be undercutting actual values by nearly a third showing near 1600J/kg in the warm sector. This is compared with nearly 3500J/kg off the SPC meso page. The gradient in the Dakotas in the CAPE and lifted index fields clearly shows the approaching trough axis, so aids in confidence in the placement of the surface boundary.
-ISU2004
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