The storms that have been showing a consistently "high" ProbTor value (above 20% earlier) have started to weaken as they near the Mt. Holly CWA. This weakening can be seen on several of the experimental products.
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| 1952Z (UL - All Tilts Radar and ProbSevere, UR - GOES Sandwich, LL - GLM/NLDN, LR - ENTLN) |
In the image above, the ProbSevere values were around 66% due to Wind, the sandwich product had colder cloud tops, and the GLM data was more intense (171 Flashes).
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| 2008Z (UL - All Tilts Radar and ProbSevere, UR - GOES Sandwich, LL - GLM/NLDN, LR - ENTLN) |
Moving to 2008Z, the ProbSevere values fell between 30-50% due to wind. The southern storm in the Sandwich product showed slightly warmer and fuzzy/glaciated cloud tops and the GLM flashes fell to 113. Also notice how the event grid on the southern storm (lower left image) has focused more on the northern storm and matches the trends in the radar and satellite data.
At this time, no plans to issue any warnings on these storms as they enter the CWA.
-GOB
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