Quick look at some of the derived parameters sat 1857 UTC prior to expected storm initiation today. Following image has the following parameters from upper left to lower right : Total Precipitable Water, CAPE, K-Index, Lifted Index.
TPW fields indicate some moisture pooling to the west of ongoing convection, with a similar trend in the instability fields. Drier, more stable air in place upstream of developing storms. Unsure if this just indicates where current forcing/ascent is and this will translate eastward or if current storms moving into less favorable environment.
CAPE values continue to be significantly lower than numerical model analysis, but LI values much closer and seem reasonable given the pattern.
-JRM
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