Looked at GOES total PW. Amounts >1" from eastern UNR CWA into western ND and far eastern Montana... pretty decent for this area. Unfortunately, the surface obs are still pretty dry in the western Dakotas, with dew points only in the 50s - for now - though there is a southerly wind for most everybody.
NUCAPS total totals were uniformly 50-59 north of Rapid City to the Canadian border.
Looked at cloud optical depth to get some idea about the thickness of the cloud cover in the central CWA. Appears to show cloud cover is thin, so I assume we should get strong solar heating this afternoon.
By 21Z Cu field approaching NW corner of SD. Queried recent NUCAPS grids to check 700 mb temps, which were 12-14C.
At this time, SPC issued t-storm watch for NW corner of SD, but mostly for western ND.
But also looked at NUCAPs 850 Lapse rate... over 8C/km. Expect that if these towers in western MT move into that area, they should blow up pretty quickly.
1 min VIS puts storms approaching NW corner... with 1 min GLM flash points increasing quickly.
When looked at same flash data, they was well out ahead of the main line of storms on radar.
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