NUCAPS Observations in W Kansas for 21 Jun 1017...

Here's a quick look at NUCAPS gridded data at approx 19Z from the southern/central Plains near an area of subsequent deep convection in W Kansas.  This first image shows gridded Max CAPE (J/Kg) values where available.  Also within the image are GOES-16 0.64 um imagery and the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook.

Notice that the axis of max CAPE values is very close but a little to the east of the Slight Risk area, suggesting perhaps that the better axis of instability lay just to the east of the Slight Risk.  Also, the 850 mb theta-e analysis from the NUCAPS gridded data likewise indicated this eastward shift. 

Convection did subsequently develop in western Kansas during the afternoon as shown in the latest available imagery below.  This loop contains 0.64 and 10.34 um GOES-16 imagery along with MRMS -20C Reflectivity.  Although data from NUCAPS are a few hours old now, the earlier data indicated sufficient instability to keep convection development ongoing downstream and that increased intensity is possible as it moves into a region of higher instability.  We'll see what happens. 

Kris W