One of the first convective cells of the afternoon approached the RAH forecast area...but was pulsing in strength. The ProbSevere product (overlaid on the visible imagery) also fluctuated between 50 and 70% as the cell approached the RAH border. But once the probability reached 75% I issued a warning. At the same time, there was a 2.0 Sigma jump in the lightning flash rate, 50 dBZ at the -20C level and plenty of ice present (in the VIL shown in the top right panel). The cell slowly progressed eastward and began weakening (evident in both the ProbSevere output and reflectivity). Once the ProbSevere dropped below 50%, I cancelled the warning.
~Lilly Miller~
UPDATE: This cell weakened after entering the CWA, prompting a cancellation of the warning. However...the cell continued its pulsing life cycle for at least a couple of more hours and eventually strengthening into a stout supercell and dropped severe hail once it reached better instability.
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