Tuesday, May 3, 2016

GFS Underestimating CAPE, LAP Helps With Adjusting It Upwards.

The LAP imagery 4 panel below at 1800 UTC shows CAPE (upper left), LI (lower left), Total PW (lower right) and Layer Cloud Type (upper right). The sample tool shows a rather low CAPE estimate area, which is being derived from the GFS model (upper right image). The higher CAPE values to the northwest of there (upper left) shows values being derived from clear or cloudy skies. Thus, the GFS is underestimating the CAPE values. The LAP data is helping adjust it upwards to more realistic values. This is helpful to know where the GFS is being used, and that its values should be higher than shown. JJW


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