Prob Severe Qualitatively Helpful

With a low shear, low mid-level lapse rate environment today...ProbSevere has not been very high, and most storms have not been severe. However with the severe storm we did have...Prob Severe only topped out at 25%. This may seem like a poor performance however, when looking at ProbSevere qualitatively and not quantitatively a survey of the storms at the time showed every other storm less than 10 percent. That means that for the severe storm, despite having a low value of ProbSevere, it was still 2.5 times that of any other storm in the area. This still is useful information given the environment and actually added confidence to the warning decision because it was the best we had seen all day.

-Jason Bourne