Mesoscale setup for Pueblo 5/11/16

Very high shear/ very low cape situation in Pueblo this afternoon as shown below through the RAP analysis.

At the surface there is some convergence and almost a meso-low...most likely created by southeasterly flow into the front range. This upslope flow along with the convergence has spawned some showers across the southwestern areas this afternoon. Looking aloft...Pueblo sits at the base of an upper trough with a 300 mb jet passing over the area. See sfc, 500 and 300 mb charts below.

While LAP is in a cloudy sky regime...IASI soundings were able to confirm the very low levels of CAPE values that RAP and GFS analysis are showing and were useful in this situation in providing observational information that LAP was not able to do. As a forecaster I could see the IASI soundings being useful...especially when severe weather is forecasted to begin in the late morning or early afernoon hours.

Layer PW is really highlighting the biggest threat area this afternoon in the extreme southeastern portion of Colorado and this corresponds well to the Marginal Risk area put in place by SPC.

While the temperature has already reached forecasted highs for today, it is likely that instability will not increase all that much this afternoon. Despite that...lapse rates are particularly strong in the mid levels and if this area drifts eastwards with time...could line up well with the best PW later in the day.

All in all, expect mostly sub severe storms with the possibility of a severe storm late in the day in the southeast with wind damage the primary threat.
- Jason Bourne