May 9, 2016 Test and First Blog

Focus is on Norman and Dallas Fort-Worth Forecast Areas today...1800 UTC sounding just completed. It is very unstable with supercells possible (0-6 km shear = 43 kts; SBCAPE = 2453) orienting into lines or multiples lines later due to the strong SW flow aloft.

The latest LAP CAPE axis is just west of the I-35 corridor.

LAP Lifted Indices are in the -6C to -8C range along and just west of the I-35 corridor too.  The layered GOES PWAT product shows significant drying aloft in the 700-300 hPa layers (0.10-.19 range) over western and central OK with the layer PWAT in the 0.90-1.25" range.  Thinking is convection will fire west to southwest of OKC and DFW.  The latest CI image shows high chance and likely probabilities west and southwest of OKC. Latest as of 1900 UTC is some 80-90+ probabilities just east of I-44 in OK.

These probabilites will likely continue to increase, and we believe going to warning mode is likely within the next 30-60 mins.  The strong upper level impulse continues to approach from the OK and NW TX panhandles. Will continue to monitor Prob. Severe Model for any new info.

Yodamaster777