Conditions are looking promising for convective development this afternoon. Moist southeasterly flow is currently occurring over the OUN CWA with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Forecast afternoon highs are around 80F.
Looking at the GOES LAP PWAT values, there is a sharp gradient aloft with a much drier airmass overrunning the moist lower levels. This dry air aloft should contribute to destabilizing the airmass as the afternoon progresses.
Based on a supplemental 18Z soundings at OUN, there is a capping inversion present. However, it appears that surface temps are getting close to overcoming the cap and tapping into fairly impressive instability.
The GOES LAP derived imagery from around the same time shows CAPE values around 2000 J/kg centered over the CWA.
A dry line currently over SE OK will slowly move through the region today. Based on the Super Rapid Scan visible satellite, there is good clearing for daytime heating and cumulus development already beginning to occur ahead of the dry line toward the western end of the sharp CAPE gradient. The GOES-R Convective Initiation (CI) algorithm is suggesting that deeper convection has about a 50-60 % chance of occurring in the next 2 hrs in this area to the SW of the CWA, with one area of clouds at 80-90%.
Everything seems to be coming together for convective activity sooner rather than later. -JP
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