A full blown MCS formed along the western portion of the Dallas-Fort Worth forecast area. Several large hail reports came in, but a severe mode switch to damging winds, as the the low-level velocity data had a broad area of 45-60 kts 2-3 kft AGL (not shown). The Prob Severe (below) value was still 93%, but this cell was tapping into nearly 5000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Likely the DCAPE values were close to 2000 J/kg. The cloud tops had cooled close to -65C. This particular cell was heading to Dallas-Fort Worth over the next hour. Significant wind damage is likely.
Brief summary...
Overall, the Prob Severe guidance, and Lightning Flash Rate Algorithm were very helpful today for issuing warnings. The 1-min GOES-14 SRSOR imagery beautifully showed the CB and anvil evolution. Also, clouds tops cooled to close to -75C with one cell in the FWD area.
-Yodamaster777
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