Franklin County VA Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Prob Severe Jump Delayed.

I issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Franklin County, VA, due to the Prob Severe model showing a gradual upward trend from 55% to 90%. It dropped all the way to 10% at 2016 UTC, then back to 90% at 2019 UTC. This may have been due to Prob Severe detecting "Mature Storm" for the growth and glaciation rates at 2014 UTC (Prob Severe was 75%). This perhaps limited its ability to sample those rate values at 2016 UTC. All tilts was showing a potential three body scatter spike with this cell, so that helped me issue the warning before the Prob Severe model spiked up to 90% at 2019 UTC. Update: 1.00 inch hail was reported in Franklin County at 2020 UTC, and Ping pong ball size hail at 2025 UTC. JJW