Southern Wisconsin Thunderstorm Development: Hail Reported

Monday 25 April 2016 - 14:30 - Mesoscale Discussion Update

Concerning: Severe Thunderstorms - Southern Wisconsin

With thunderstorm initiation now underway in multiple CWA's, have shifted focus to Southern Wisconsin (KMKX - Milwaukee, WI WFO) for this afternoon.

Storm Prediction Center has issues Severe Thunderstorm Watch #110 until 22:00 CDT.

 

Have been monitoring thunderstorm development along with the Probability Severe Model as thunderstorms have developed, along with the Convective Initiation (CI) and Severe Convective Initiation (Severe CI) Parameters. As of 14:30, no thunderstorms have reached above 30% severe probability, and the Severe CI has reflected that, but the regular CI has done a good job of showing where thunderstorm development is forecast to occur, compared to where it has done.

One thing to note, KMKX has relayed a report of Pea Sized Hail near Fond Du Lac, WI, and the Prob Severe Model has not gone above 30% with the MRMS MESH not going about 0.25", which would support this type of hail report happening.

Continuing to monitor thunderstorm development, but watching it move out of this CWA and into Green Bay, WI CWA shortly as well.

Forecaster: Schuerman