Beneath mostly clear skies in northwestern IL, instability is beginning to ramp up ahead of the approaching cold front. The LAP CAPE and LI are showing this tend well, and match reasonable well with the mesoanalysis as shown below. LAP CAPE does appear to be somewhat underdone when compared to the mesoanalysis SBCAPE, but the trends and gradients are still apparent. 0-6km bulk shear is in excess of 40 kts across the region. Given this wind shear and theromdynamic profile, once convection develops, it should not take long for some of the storms to reach severe criteria.
Also of note in the above Vis/CI image, there were a few CI false alarms in the southern portion of the LOT CWA. There were some higher clouds above the cumulus in this area, which likely triggered these false alarms.
-Toki Wartooth
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