Wednesday, April 27, 2016

First Few Severe Thunderstorm Warnings - Saint Louis (LSX)... Finally!

WUUS53 KLSX 272258
SVRLSX
ILC005-051-272330-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0014.160427T2258Z-160427T2330Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
558 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS  HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN BOND COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  WESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 557 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER VANDALIA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  VANDALIA...BROWNSTOWN...SHOBONIER...AVENA...SHAFTER AND HAGERSTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3884 8909 3894 8926 3914 8907 3906 8886
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 210DEG 19KT 3897 8912

$$

BMS


Issued the first Severe Thunderstorm Warning of the afternoon for far Northeastern Counties in LSX for a marginal Severe Thunderstorm. For the scan when I initiated the Severe Thunderstorm Warning, it was up to 60% Prob Severe with 0.83" MESH Hail with close to 54 DBZ at 21K Feet. Felt it was enough that it could drop quarter sized hail, so pulled the trigger for a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for hail and torrential rainfall out of this thunderstorm. Very borderline, but judgment call for Severe Thunderstorm Warning, as it was intensifying from 20% to 60% Prob Severe within 3-4 radar scans.


UPDATE: 

WWUS53 KLSX 272315
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
614 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

ILC005-272324-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-160427T2330Z/
BOND IL-
614 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN BOND COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
   
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3888 8905 3902 8919 3914 8907 3906 8886
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 210DEG 19KT 3905 8906

$$

ILC051-272330-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-160427T2330Z/
FAYETTE IL-
614 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTY...

AT 614 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VANDALIA... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VANDALIA...BROWNSTOWN...AVENA AND SHAFTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3888 8905 3902 8919 3914 8907 3906 8886
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 210DEG 19KT 3905 8906

$$

BMS


Continued Severe Thunderstorm Warning for this storm for marginal 1.00" hail threat and heavy rainfall, but one thing noted, cell is looking like it is splitting as it moves off to the Northeast, but Prob Severe has continued to treat it as one thunderstorm. As noted in thunderstorms on Tuesday in Oklahoma, the right one has become the dominant thunderstorm, that appears to be the case with this storm as well.

SECOND WARNING:

WUUS53 KLSX 272327
SVRLSX
ILC051-280000-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0015.160427T2327Z-160428T0000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
627 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS  HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 627 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER BROWNSTOWN...OR 7 MILES EAST OF VANDALIA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ST. ELMO...BROWNSTOWN...WRIGHTS CORNER...AVENA AND ST. JAMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3889 8898 3905 8909 3922 8881 3921 8880
      3894 8880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 240DEG 19KT 3901 8896

$$

BMS





Issued second Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the same cell, as some weakening then, re-strengthening has occurred with this storm. The Prob Severe has gone the highest we have seen with this, with 71% and 0.89% MESH, so continued same hazards with this storm, as I have with the previous storm.



And then with the following scan, Prob Severe jumped to 88% with 1.09" MESH Hail, so this storm was intensifying as we we're going along...

Forecaster: Schuerman

No comments:

Post a Comment