The loop here shows rapid trending of ProbSVR values, and each storm showing sigma jumps of at least 3.0. In subsequent scans, the northern storm approaching Raliegh had ProbSVR values jump from 54 to 67 to 94 percent, and a solid hail core aloft to justify severe potential. The second storm made a similar jump in ProbSVR as 48 to 56 to 60 to 82. The rapid jumps in ProbSVR coinciding with the Lightning jump anomallies occurring with each cell showind the ProbSVR parameters in the middle of these jumps (60 to 70 pecent) gives this forecaster a chance to build upon speed of analysis and increase lead time. In addition, the northern storm was moving near the cone of silence and could have had lost data that may have delayed a warning in real time.
Forecaster: Manbearpig
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