Value of GOES data in ProbSevere Model

The NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere model uses five predictors--two environmental fields (MUCAPE and effective bulk shear), two satellite growth rates, and one radar hail size estimation.  When any piece of data is not available, the model simply runs without that data.  So in cases were storms are developing in regions of opaque clouds, the satellite growth parameters are not available and the model defaults to environmental variables and MRMS MESH.  However, the ProbSevere model is most skillful when the satellite predictors are available.  A storm in far north central Texas from today demonstrates the value of GOES storm growth rates.  Figure 1 shows the ProbSevere output before the growth rates were available at 1958 UTC 7 May 2014.  The storm of interest has a probability of 6%.

Figure 1.  NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere and MRMS composite reflectivity valid 1958 UTC 7 May 2014.

And the following time, 2000 UTC 7 May 2014, the satellite growth rates became available (both strong) and the MRMS MESH value also increased.  The probability jumped from 6% to 70%.

Figure 2.  NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere and MRMS composite reflectivity valid 2000 UTC 7 May 2014.

-Sieglaff