Strong thunderstorms continue to develop along the dryline in Kansas on Thursday afternoon. The first severe thunderstorm warning came out at 2152 UTC 8 May 2014 for a storm southwest of Topeka, Kansas. Figure 1 shows the evolution of this storm up to the point of becoming warned. The ProbSevere model jumped above 50% at 2146 UTC--good for 6 minutes of lead-time.
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| Figure 1. NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere and MRMS composite reflectivity valid 2146 -2152 UTC 8 May 2014. |
It will be interesting if storms further southwest become severe, as probabilities briefly went above 50%, but have been cycling a bit as the storms try to better organize.
-Sieglaff
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