Thursday, May 8, 2014

Storms develop further southwest along dryline

Strong thunderstorms continue to develop along the dryline in Kansas on Thursday afternoon.  The first severe thunderstorm warning came out at 2152 UTC 8 May 2014 for a storm southwest of Topeka, Kansas.  Figure 1 shows the evolution of this storm up to the point of becoming warned.  The ProbSevere model jumped above 50% at 2146 UTC--good for 6 minutes of lead-time.

Figure 1. NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere and MRMS composite reflectivity valid 2146 -2152 UTC 8 May 2014.

It will be interesting if storms further southwest become severe, as probabilities briefly went above 50%, but have been cycling a bit as the storms try to better organize.

-Sieglaff

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