22Z…a broken line of storms continues through western
IA. To this point, strong…but not strong
enough to warrant warning.
The LAPS model forecast for 22Z is below
Catches the basic idea of the shape/character of convection
to the west, but just a little off in location.
Here’s the Nearcast instability forecast looking ahead four
hours…highest instability will lift northeast, and this batch of convection
will move with it. Notice lingering
instability (relatively speaking)near the NE/IA border.
The CI product shows the potential for more convection to
develop along the main cold front behind our initial line. Expecting this activity, should it take hold,
will be less of a concern with lower instability to work with compared to the
first line.
db
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