ProbSevere on the high plains

Storms have developed nicely over southeast WY and the Denver, CO region. In Denver, a storm had a strong glaciation rate but a weak normalized vertical growth rate initially (figure 1). As the MESH increased to 0.89 in., the probability of severe increased to 53%. A scan later, the storm exhibited moderate vertical growth (from satellite), and the probability jumped to 71%.  This storm and the storm to its southwest were warned by the NWS (figure 2) almost simultaneously with the jump to 71% probability of severe. So though lead time isn't substantial in this case, ProbSevere could help with forecasters' confidence during warning operations.

Figure 1: Storms near Denver, CO

Figure 2: NWS warning on two storms near Denver.

In Wyoming, a storm that was over 120km from any radar, had strong and moderate satellite growth rates and had 52% probability of severe (figure 3) about 3-4 minutes before an NWS warning was issued (figure 4). In a low CAPE environment, 50% is usually significant for ProbSevere. Again, ProbSevere may be able to aid forecaster confidence during the warning operations process.

Figure 3: Storm in southeast Wyoming

Figure 4: NWS warning at 3:53pm

-Cintineo