LAPS Theta-e vs. NearCast Theta-e Difference

For today, my area of focus is in the DVN CWA. I began by looking at some of the satellite imagery and associated products, such as CI and OT detection. It’s still a bit too early for the OT product to be useful and the CI product is just now beginning to hone in on the developing CU field across the region. In the first image below, I’ve scalloped the region where the CU field has been evidently increasing in coverage and vertical growth. The CI product doesn’t show anything above the 40% range just yet but it still is a good way to bring attention to this area for possible initiation as conditions become increasingly favorable for development. There is a location just south of the area I’ve outlined that shows a 70% chance for CI so that’ll be something to watch as well.

In the next image (below), I loaded the CONUS LAPS theta-e analysis (image) along with wind and METARs/station plots (the 800×800 domain is not available for this region today). Again, the area of interest is across the northern border of the DVN CWA. Except for the bulls eyes that appear where there are seemingly bad obs being ingested (when toggling over to the dewpoint analysis, these locations are evident), this has been a good situational awareness tool as well as a good product to put together a mesoscale analysis.



Comparing the analysis above with the theta-e difference product below, much of the DVN CWA is under an area of convective instability. Unfortunately, the aforementioned scalloped area of interest in the northern half of the CWA is blacked out so I’ve had to infer and fill in where a lack of data exists. It would appear that a gradient exists right through this area, which lines up with all previously analyzed parameters and products hinting that this is the area to watch over the next 0-2 hours.



~Linda