ProbSevere in the Land of Lincoln

Storms fired ahead of the cold front in central Illinois. ProbSevere (animation below) had a 45% probability of severe at 19:28 UTC, owing to large MUCAPE (~3000 J/kg), effective shear (~50 kts), and strong satellite growth rates (by 18:45 UTC). The MESH was miniscule (0.06"). The probability of severe exceeded 90% at 19:36 UTC, with MESH of about 0.5". This is good for 12 minutes of lead time to the initial NWS warning, issued at 19:48 UTC. We again see how strong satellite growth rates can signal strong convection prior to a robust radar signal, and give forecasters heightened awareness and additional lead time to some severe hazards. One inch diameter hail was recorded in several of the storms warned here.

-Cintineo/Sieglaff