Simulated Satellite Imagery, CI, and CTC Forecast Convection Across West Texas

NSSL WRF simulated satellite imagery accurately depicted convection erupting across West Texas as an outflow boundary from a previous MCS across north-central Texas interacted with the dryline. The three following images show a westward propagating outflow boundary interacting with isolated cells along the dryline across portions of West Texas.

NSSL WRF simulated satellite imagery from 21Z. 

Simulated satellite imagery at 22Z.

Simulated satellite imagery at 23Z

The UAH CI and UW-CTC products were also very persistent in developing convection across the extreme southern Texas panhandle and adjacent portions of West Texas.

UAH CI product prior to convective development this afternoon. 

UW-CTC product showing persistent cloud top cooling of 15 to 25 C/15 min.

Satellite imagery verified convective development across West Texas. While impossible to forecast the exact location of initiation, the general area was well represented with lead times of up to around half an hour. Convection can be seen beginning near 2010Z and lasting well into the afternoon hours.

Visible satellite imagery overlaid with analyzed mean sea level pressure and surface observations at 2010Z. 

Same but for 2125Z

Guseman