CTC Starting to Light Up in the TX Panhandle

UWCTC is starting to capture significant convective growth within the Texas Panhandle within the LBB domain.  Current HWT operations are not focused on this area; however, some forecasters have been noticing the development within the region.  This is also an area that was highlighted by some of the experimental models of the EFP and OUN WRF for forecasted development within the current time frame.  The first significant CTC detection was at 2010 UTC with a high moderate value of ~-17K/15 min (Figure 1).  The very next scan (2015 UTC) exhibited a strong CTC rate on the same convective element of ~-20K/15 min (Figure 2).

Figure 1.  UWCTC over visible satellite imagery valid at 2010 UTC.  UWCTC rates of ~-17K/15 min are displayed.

Figure 2.  Same as in Figure 1 but valid at 2015 UTC.  UWCTC rates of ~-20K/15 min are shown.

The radar reflectivity at the time of first detection (2011 UTC; Figure 3)was minimal at < 30 dBZ.

Figure 3.  Radar imagery out of Lubbock, TX showing minimal reflectivity for the storm of interest.

The UWCTC algorithm continued to flag the same convective element with significant cooling rates at the 2025 and 2032 UTC scans (Figures 4 and 5, respectively).

Figure 4.  Same as in Figure 1 but valid at 2025 UTC.

Figure 5.  Same as in Figure 1 but valid at 2032 UTC.

The radar imagery at this time (2031 UTC) was showing a convective element with reflectivity > 40 dBZ (Figure 6).  The VIL values for the respective radar images (not shown) were nothing significant as of yet.  As of the latest satellite scans following the 2032 UTC imagery, the CTC continues to flag newly developing convective elements (not shown).

Figure 6.  Radar reflectivity out of Lubbock, TX valid at 2031 UTC showing moderate reflectivity for the storm of interest.