Mesoscale Update - 00z WRF Simulated IR and Nearcast

I was very impressed with the accuracy of the WRF simulated IR (top left panel) given that the image valid at 23z is a 23hr forecast and was very close to verifying (second image below). See the two images below.

This NearCast shows a very unstable environment (bottom right image...valid at 0630Z) through the night, which should sustain the convective bow as it tracks across Louisiana. The instability and environment actually seems to improve based on this nearcast model. Will see if this verifies.

 Wesely