LAPS 2.5 Theta-E advection was strongest from central TX near more isolated/discrete severe storms from Burnet, Brady, to Hamilton Texas and northeast through Corsicana to Clarksville along the Red River Valley. GOES-R cloud top cooling (CTC) and Convective Initiation (CI) forecasts just an hour or so ago indicated the increase in the isolated severe cells over central TX well. However, GOES-R positioning was off, but not too far off regarding the tail end of the linear MCS across north and northeast TX.
CIMSS NearCast Layer GOES Theta-E and PWAT differences did show maximums right where the Brady and Burnet convection in central TX was occurring and handling maximum stripe just ahead of the linear MCS moving east across I-35 further across north and northeast TX.
OUN_LAPS SBCAPE appeared to be well in line with current SPC mesoanalyis real-time values and can be trusted for the next 1-2 hours. During the late afternoon and early evening hours, we expect the linear MCS to continue to progress east with potential for embedded meso-vorticies and weaker tornadoes along the leading edge, while larger discrete supercell storms both ahead across the east Texas Piney Woods and southwest into the eastern Texas Hill Country and central Texas to contain more intense modes. These storms will likely see better inflow of rich Theta-E air from the Gulf of Mexico leading to lower LCLs, and the potential for very large hail and longer track tornadoes, if the tail-end of the upper level forcing from long wave trough over the Plains can extend that far south.
No comments:
Post a Comment