UAHCI Strength of Signal trends

The weak upper level low over the Southeast United States has proven to produce instances of convective initiation that the UAHCI algorithm has captured. Depending on the individual cell, cells rapidly grew which only provided one forecast of CI before initiation. However, for the slower growing storms, multiple forecasts for an object can be produced. In this example, a storm began to grow in Scotland County, NC at 1702 UTC wtih a CI strength of signal forecast of 41.

At 1715 UTC, the UAH CI Strength of Signal grew to 52 as a line of cumulus continued to develop.

At 1732 UTC, the UAH CI Strength of Signal rose to 61 within the cumulus line.

At 1745 UTC, the UAH CI Strength of Signal produced a forecast of 75.

The UAHCI forecast did not produce a forecast at 1802 UTC as the line matured into cumulonimbus. But this is an example of following a slow growing storm can lead to increased confidence in convective initiation.