CTC success in Raleigh, NC WFO CWA

The UW-CTC product is showing good success with convective development in the Raleigh, NC with the storms being flagged exhibiting severe MESH values, and producing supportive hail reports.  At 1715 UTC, the CTC product showed near strong cooling rates of approximately -16.5K/15 min for the initial development of storms along a boundary in eastern NC (see Fig. 1).

Fig. 1

This particular storm had a severe MESH of 1.25" by 1832 UTC (see Fig. 2) [lead time of 1 hour and 17 mintues], and subsequently 1.5" by 1845 UTC (see Fig. 3) [lead time of 1 hour and 30 minutes]. 

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

The CTC product also picked up the storm following directly to the west of the above first storm, with a cooling rate of ~-18.5K/15 min at 1832 UTC (see Fig. 4).

Fig. 4

This storm would also later product a large MESH (not shown).  Additionally, further south and west in the other domain of interest today (Wilmington, SC), another storm started to grow first exhibiting an large intermediate cooling value of ~14K/15 min at 1732 UTC (Fig. 5), and attained a severe MESH value of ~1" at 1832 UTC, meaning a lead time of one hour (Fig. 6).

Fig. 5

Fig. 6