Simulated Satellite Imagery in EWP

Day 1 of the EWP this week is focusing on the AMA and LBB areas.  At the current time, no storms have yet formed in these regions, so the forecasters are looking at the various model solutions to determine which seem to be on track.  Simulated satellite imagery is an ideal tool for model evaluation because it shows where the model places clouds, boundaries, shortwaves, etc.  The image below shows the simulated imagery based on a 20-hour forecast from the NSSL WRF valid at 20Z today (top panels), along with the observed IR and WV imagery from GOES (bottom panels) also valid at 20Z.  Notice that the simulated IR image (top left) shows convective cloud formation in New Mexico that appears to match observations (bottom left) very well.  This gives forecasters confidence in the remaining NSSL-WRF forecast, including when storms will move into the Amarillo and Lubbock forecast areas.