Simulated ABI imagery in the EFP

Today's focus area for convective initiation extended from eastern Iowa to central lower Michigan.  Although the forcing was adequate for deep convection, the low-level moisture was marginal with surface dew points only in the upper 40s so that the instability was weak.  Based on the ensemble model output (SSEO, AFWA, CAPS), the area of greatest likelihood for convection was located across northern Illinois, southeastern Wisconsin, and central Michigan.  The location of these thunderstorms if they were to occur would have a large impact on air travel through Chicago.  Most of the ensemble members predicted that convective initiation would occur between 21 and 23 UTC across this area.  The NSSL-WRF model, however, had the main convective area further to the west and was the most aggressive with the convective development across eastern Iowa, northern Illinois and southwestern Wisconsin.  The initiation and subsequent evolution of the simulated thunderstorms was clearly depicted by the CIMSS synthetic ABI imagery.  The simulated ABI visible imagery was also useful for depicting these thunderstorms.

When preparing the convection forecasts in the morning, the NSSL-WRF model solution was discounted given the tendency for the ensemble members to prefer convective development further to the east; however, as of 22 UTC, it appears as though the NSSL-WRF solution had a more accurate depiction of the convective development.  The images below show a comparison of the simulated ABI and real GOES infrared channels across the central U.S from 21 UTC.  Notice that the linear band of deeper convection across eastern Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin in the synthetic ABI imagery agrees well with the real GOES imagery.

- Jason Otkin