NSSL-WRF Simulated ABI Imagery and CI forecast

This morning on the EFP CI-desk, the simulated ABI imagery from the NSSL-WRF provided guidance on location and timing of initial CI location for many of the forecasters. As can be seen in the image below, there was a tight cluster of forecasted first CI location points over the higher terrain of northern New Mexico. The simulated ABI band 13 image valid at 1900 UTC shows newly developing convention over northern New Mexico. A few other forecasters favored convective initiation along the moisture gradient in the lower troposphere in eastern Kansas. (Ongoing storms northwest of Salina, Kansas were excluded from the forecast area.)