The GOES Sounder Nearcasting product is being used today on the EFP CI-desk to identify possible forcing mechanisms for the deep convection. In the image below the nearcasting theta-e difference is shown, valid 1700 UTC 01 June 2011. Strong convection has been ongoing and continually developing in eastern to north-central Kansas along the minimum (maximum instability) and northeastward toward the strong gradient in the nearcasting theta-e difference. It was noted this gradient is also coincident with a strong dewpoint gradient at 850 hPa. It is believed southerly flow across this gradient is helping force the convection. Further east across the Mid Atlantic region, convection was developing largely in the minimum of the theta-e difference, with a strong gradient to the west as low-level moisture decreases behind the front. It has also been noted there are many other areas of strong potential instability indicated by the nearcasting product, however there is not deep convection associated with many of these areas. One hypothesis is there needs to be not only instability present, but also a forcing mechanism. Possible forcing mechanisms maybe inferred by a strong gradient in the instability indicated by the nearcasting product, suggestion strong temperature and/or moisture advection.
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