EWP forecasters have come up with some novel ways to utilize the Nearcast differential precipitable water/theta-e forecasts within their warning operations. Generally we think of the Nearcast as a forecast tool, but the EWP forecasters have been using it to issue warnings and severe weather statements (see image above). Forecasters have been analyzing increased near-storm convective instability as depicted in the 0-2 hour forecasts from the Nearcast product to help increase their confidence that the storm will intensify. Conversely, the Nearcast is very useful to show when storms will die if the storm is expected to move into an area with very low convective instability or dryer atmospheric columns. This is another example of how forecasters will find some additional utility of these experimental products that the developers may not have originally intended.
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
Nearcast in short-term warning operations
EWP forecasters have come up with some novel ways to utilize the Nearcast differential precipitable water/theta-e forecasts within their warning operations. Generally we think of the Nearcast as a forecast tool, but the EWP forecasters have been using it to issue warnings and severe weather statements (see image above). Forecasters have been analyzing increased near-storm convective instability as depicted in the 0-2 hour forecasts from the Nearcast product to help increase their confidence that the storm will intensify. Conversely, the Nearcast is very useful to show when storms will die if the storm is expected to move into an area with very low convective instability or dryer atmospheric columns. This is another example of how forecasters will find some additional utility of these experimental products that the developers may not have originally intended.
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