Sitting through the various discussions on the likelihood of the development of CI, it quickly became apparent that the low pressure system moving eastward along the Canadian border was garnering plenty of interest from the 3 main desks located in the HWT. Watching it through the morning with the morning shift of EWP forecasters, the area remained on the "it's going to be an interesting day" and "it didn't really produce much" line, due to the favorable conditions in moisture and afternoon heating being held back by a pretty definite cap that may or may not break sometime before 00Z. Moving in the afternoon, warning portion of the EWP program, conditions remain decent, yet the cap is still firmly in place. Interest in the CI products is in the forefront of the forecaster's minds and the handy, four panel, product is up on the main screens of the AWIPS displays of all four forecasters present.
In all, so far, SATCAST has been indicating CI sporadically in and around the North Plains for most of the afternoon. Taking into account the capped environment, the algorithm has been picking up the signal of rapidly growing clouds, as it is trained to do, yet convection has been slow to develop in CWA's of Grand Forks and Duluth. This has resulted in some red objects (in the area of interest) that will likely not verify, due to the capped environment and some interfering cirrus atop the low pressure system as it moves east.
So far, the forecasters have still indicated an interest in the product as the afternoon has progressed. Being able to look at the data in a loop has allowed for an awareness of the environment, allowing for the forecaster to be "queued in" to an area of interest. As an example, the UAH CI algorithm has indicated a consistent CI signal moving across western North Dakota that verified about 35 minutes later on radar (according to the notes of forecasters assigned to the Grand Forks CWA).
It is still early, we will see how things evolve after a quick dinner break..
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