2017 Experiment Complete

The 2017 GOES-R/JPSS Experiment in the HWT is wrapping up today. This has been a great experiment this year with getting to utilize live GOES-16 data in operations here in the testbed. Also we were able to demonstrate GLM lightning data to forecasters for the very first time and have gotten a lot of valuable feedback from forecasters on what they would like to see operationally form the GLM in terms of display capabilities. Feedback from the fourth and final week of the experiment is posted below:

GLM

Get the parallax fixed before fielding

Forecasters will be confused between events, groups, and flashes and what each means and why they are useful

The Stano color curve would be the best default

Being able to monitor trends would be the most useful

A pop up time series like a pop up skew t could be very useful

Training seemed to be pretty good for preparing people

Seeing the spatial extent is a very useful quality of GLM

Another big utility is for monitoring electrification before the other networks can

Don’t see people using it too much if the parallax displacement is still an issue when fielded

NUCAPS

Useful information yesterday out of the gridded products when there was clearing in the area

Obviously most useful for pre-convective environment and getting an early afternoon pass over the area

Overall the experimental product seemed more useful, but there were times that the operational seemed to be a better representation of the environment.

The yellow dots seemed to be somewhat reasonable at times and can have some useful information

As long as people understand how the modifications in the experimental profile are made, they can be extremely useful

Like having both the experimental and the operational soundings to compare the atmospheres

Repeating the latency problem which is the biggest hurdle to operational use

Would be nice to be able to have some automated products produced from NUCAPS profiles

ABI

Understand the RGBs a lot better now than before

Found a couple really useful ones for operations

There were some very useful RGBs for convective applications

RGBs seem to bog systems down in some offices when trying to load

Training should concentrate on best practices and what the colors mean for application

Training needs to be heavily focused on operational benefits

Daytime Cloud Phase RGB seemed to be one that should be introduced first, especially this time of year for convective development

CAPE is still a problem, being consistently too low

Derived Winds should be color coded by pressure level instead of wind speed and steering clear reg, green, yellow type color combinations

ProbSevere

Useful for situational awareness

Good tool for monitoring trends and keeping an eye on storms of interest

ProbTor was useful for seeing storms that were different from any of the other storms

ProbHail was more restrained and seemed to reduce FAR from being too high from relying solely on MESH

Still struggles with wind events and tracking of linear features

-Michael Bowlan

GOES-R Liaison at SPC/HWT

Storms came into NW SD, barely

-tvguy

Line of storms were weaker on the southern half of the line coming in from MT... even though environment indicated some strengthening should occur. Due to 60 dbZ reflectivity at 15Kft, and increase in velocities >30 kt issued SVR for extreme NW corner of Harding Co for low end wind, hail threat. ProbSevere was not impressed, with 11% hail and 9% hail. But I'm not sure this tells the whole story, given strength of storms to the north and potential development of outflow winds as well as elevated reflectivities suggested a greater hail threat than advertised. Chose to discount the negativity of ProbSevere, with additional concern about data quality at such a long distance from the UDX 88D.

As warning about to expire, received LSR of 50 mph. Non-severe. But then velocities really picked up along the line, up to +57 kts. Due to strenthening, reissued along the line for much of that county (Harding).

Even though ProbSevere values were very low... under 10% on all parameters... the storm did produce highway sensor value of 62 mph. Kind of thinking the ProbSevere object is created by reflectivity core, but doesn't consider the stronger wind values created out ahead of that storm -- or, perhaps there are latency issues due to data processing. I don't know.

Finally, saw convergence signature (64 kts) on southern part of line. Upon expiration, reissued farther to the SE for line of windmakers.

ND 1 min imagery

Can see what looks to be lower level inflow into the main area of severe thunderstorms. This indicates to us that the storm is maintaining intensity. This, along with radar and PROBSevere data has led us to continue our warnings

Missing gridded NUCAPS data in complex terrain?

I noticed there were a lot of mixing pixels in the NUCAPS gridded data over the Black Hills despite the fact there was no notable cloud cover. Expanding west, it became apparent this was a common theme across Western Montana into central Idaho as well. Sounding availability overlays show most of these area are considered yellow. It seemed many of these points were areas where there was a gradient between darker forested areas in the terrain, and lower adjacent valley locations. For locations in the west, for this data to be useful and for us to have confidence in using it, we really need a more complete data set. A sounding from the Black Hill is shown at the bottom, which seems meteorologically reasonable.

-64BoggsLites

ND Convection along Warm Front

Finally have CI across the western portion of the CWA. Forcing is largely along the warm frontal boundary at this time, with two notable cells. Still monitoring the potential for initiation along the dryline. Have opted to continue the warning on the cell mentioned in the previous post given a combination of radar, satellite, and environmental data. 1 minute imagery is now in for the area: seeing near steady thick ice in the clouds associated with the isolated cells (which includes the warned cell), but not really beginning to see the cu along the dryline becoming more agitated.

2045Z UNR update - satellite and lightning trends

...update....the cell to the north did in fact product a CG strike per ENTLN data approximately 5-10 minutes after flashes/events where first noted in GLM data.

previous post...

The activity working across south central MT associated with a 500mb speed maxima has continued to develop eastward. Day cloud phase shows an increase in cumulus over far southeast MT over the last hour, and this activity has slowly increased in depth. Meanwhile the cluster of showers just to the west is producing a thicker anvil layer

The Sandwich display shows gradually cooling cloud tops indicating the convective cluster continues to slowly strengthen as it moves into a somewhat more favorable environment.

A 4-panel lightning display shows an increase in lightning trends as well. What's interesting to note (aside from the general increase in lightning trends) is the top left panel is a few flashes and events in a shower to the north of the better convection...an area where cloud to ground lightning has yet to be noted, and max dBz is near 30. Perhaps an indication this cell is strengthening and could produce lightning in the next few minutes.

-64BoggsLites.

Monitering convection along dryline

While storms are initiating near front, have been watching along dry line for new storm development. While that has not yet occurred, did catch a failed attempt at initation.  Visible loop (below) indicates what looks like an orphan anvil develop along the dry line.

In addition, daytime cloud RGB also showed that glaciation started (color becoming more green), it never grew past that initial color and diminished quickly.

-JRM

Bismark WVR

Issued a severe thunderstorm warning for large hail and damaging wind on a storm moving into the CWA from the west. Saw rapid cooling in the 5 minute Day Cloud Phase and the Sandwich imagery. An overlay of PROBSevere showed an increase in ProbHail from about 50% to 90% as the cloud tops cooled. All tilt radar display also confirmed these observations by showing 60dbZ over 30,000ft. Will now be able to monitor 1 min imagery.

Forecast Update - Bismarck CWA

Currently watching developing cumulus field behind first area of convection along and east-west oriented stationary front near Montana/South Dakota border.

Daytime microphysics RGB indicating glaciation taking place in this area and with GOES-16 derived Lifted Indexes suggesting this area most unstable would expect storm growth to continue. Intensity of storms further east in line with previous stability analysis as storms appear to be moving into less favorable environment.

A fairly rapid glaciation  of the storm was noted between 1927 UTC and 1957 UTC.

 -JRM

GLM: Visualization

Noticed when looking at gridded GLM data (8km - 5min data/1 min update), had trouble quickly picking out area of high activity.  Given activity wasn't too intense, seemed that activity was a bit muted.

 Opted to go create a rough custom color scheme using warm colors to be able to contrast more against a visible satellite image. Wasn't too concerned with the actual amounts of flash occurring, but mainly trends in relation to other cells. Mainly another SA tool to quickly discern potential problem areas. --Tahoe