Storms came into NW SD, barely

-tvguy

Line of storms were weaker on the southern half of the line coming in from MT... even though environment indicated some strengthening should occur. Due to 60 dbZ reflectivity at 15Kft, and increase in velocities >30 kt issued SVR for extreme NW corner of Harding Co for low end wind, hail threat. ProbSevere was not impressed, with 11% hail and 9% hail. But I'm not sure this tells the whole story, given strength of storms to the north and potential development of outflow winds as well as elevated reflectivities suggested a greater hail threat than advertised. Chose to discount the negativity of ProbSevere, with additional concern about data quality at such a long distance from the UDX 88D.

As warning about to expire, received LSR of 50 mph. Non-severe. But then velocities really picked up along the line, up to +57 kts. Due to strenthening, reissued along the line for much of that county (Harding).

Even though ProbSevere values were very low... under 10% on all parameters... the storm did produce highway sensor value of 62 mph. Kind of thinking the ProbSevere object is created by reflectivity core, but doesn't consider the stronger wind values created out ahead of that storm -- or, perhaps there are latency issues due to data processing. I don't know.

Finally, saw convergence signature (64 kts) on southern part of line. Upon expiration, reissued farther to the SE for line of windmakers.