SPC Instabilty Compare

Similar levels of instability in the same area on Satellite vs. SPC page. The south central Oregon area has seen recent development.

Benjamin

Experimental warnings in PDT

Forecasters working the Pendleton, OR CWA this afternoon have noted jumps in GLM data and ProbSevere helped issue their first warning (Fig. 1). The ProbSevere jumped up form 26% to 46%, largely due an ENI total lightning jump of 19 to 41 flashes/min. ProbSevere later jumped from 51% to 76%, with MRMS MESH nearing 0.9".

Reports of 0.5" were received.

Fig. 1: ProbSevere, MRMS composite reflectivity, and EWP experimental warnings.

Later, a golfball report was received for another storm, further west. This storm had strong satellite growth rates, increasing MESH, (up to 1.2") and an increasing flash rate (nearly 30 flashes/min) combining for a ProbHail value of 93% (Fig. 2). A third storm was also warned on, but with no reports, currently. It should be noted that GLM data are non-operational at the time of this posting.

Fig. 2: ProbSevere contours (curved contours), HWT experimental warnings (yellow boxes), and GLM flash density (shaded boxes).

Sat. Cell Mergers

Seeing the cell mergers (updrafts/cold tops) in northeast Oregon on this series of pictures over 12 minutes. Great color scheme. Channel 13-10 I think.

Benjamin

GLM Increase Note

Noting the increase in GLM evens and flashes in the 20 minutes prior to large hail report near Warm Springs. Increase was 3 to 5 fold from 10 to 20 flashes to near 60 flashes...and consistently held there.

First picture

2nd picture

NUCAPS

19Z NUCAPS sounding has arrived. Modified to represent surface obs in the area looks like this. Showed that there should be enough lift to overcome the cap from this morning.

1 MIN GLM Flash and MESH data

The 1 min GLM and MESH data continues to help out in the warning decision making as products show sub-severe weather activity.

DayConv. RGB

RGB Day Convection product showing decaying storms in southern Washington, less vigorous older convection in far south central Oregon (more red) with some embedded newer convection...then much more vigorous/new convection along the northern Cascades and into northeast Oregon.

Benjamin

Compared between the 12Z sounding from DDC and a modified NUCAPS sounding from the same region from 17Z MET-OPs pass. Showed evnviroment have destabilized with CAPES around 2000 J/KG.

GLM helped with a warnings

While there may have been physical reasons some of the storms that looked similar on radar aren't producing lighting. The GLM data drew my attention to a storm in eastern CO that had a persistent hail core. I found this data to be very useful in this case.

GOES CAPE AXIS

Storms formed along Cascades (western storms) along this axis of GOES CAPE.