Experimental warnings in PDT

Forecasters working the Pendleton, OR CWA this afternoon have noted jumps in GLM data and ProbSevere helped issue their first warning (Fig. 1). The ProbSevere jumped up form 26% to 46%, largely due an ENI total lightning jump of 19 to 41 flashes/min. ProbSevere later jumped from 51% to 76%, with MRMS MESH nearing 0.9".

Reports of 0.5" were received.

Fig. 1: ProbSevere, MRMS composite reflectivity, and EWP experimental warnings.

Later, a golfball report was received for another storm, further west. This storm had strong satellite growth rates, increasing MESH, (up to 1.2") and an increasing flash rate (nearly 30 flashes/min) combining for a ProbHail value of 93% (Fig. 2). A third storm was also warned on, but with no reports, currently. It should be noted that GLM data are non-operational at the time of this posting.

Fig. 2: ProbSevere contours (curved contours), HWT experimental warnings (yellow boxes), and GLM flash density (shaded boxes).