-Darrel Kingfield, CMMS/NSSL Research Associate & Week 2 EWP Coordinator
Feedback from Daily Debrief
- Bill Line, SPC/HWT Satellite Liaison
GOES-R LAP
- First thing I pulled up yesterday, for cape product, it had a section of decent cape in Wilmington area, where a few storms did develop, did a good job of picking up on where convection did happen.
- It was very splotchy. Not realistic.. If it was more smooth, it would be more useful, it makes you question the quality with 2000+ j in area of 500.
- PW will be good for flash flooding situations.
- Closest sounding to my CWA today was pretty far away, so it was useful.
- Did 4 panel for comparisons, RAP was the big outlier. Matched closely with GFS and LAPS
- I think this will be helpful for winter weather
NUCAPS
- Idaho – see blog post. Adjusted using mesowest sfc conditions. I selected one of few points that were in the clear air. The sounding indicated modest instability in the area. One cell later strengthened as it moved through the area. This will be great for WR where observations are more scarce.
GOES-R CI
- Good day to test CI product, we had cu up along the whole mid atlantic coast, it was picking up many clouds, 10-30% mostly. I think the 15 min res hurts, as we’d get 10-30% coincident with a 35+ dBz echo. It was continuing probs even when we had returns on radar
- Not useful when looking at individual cu and trends, but more useful to look at area probs and trends
- This is a good tool to get an idea to where sea breeze t storms would initiate. It is often difficult to figure out where storms will initiate along a sea breeze. From a trend standpoint, it gives you an idea of where to look. It is helpful to give me general location of where convection will develop.
- May be helpful for Monsoon storms; will they set up over the east or the west of ridge tops?
- Would be helpful to have some sort of mask that tells you that the storm initiated, giving you an idea of why the probs disappeared.
ProbSevere
- In Idaho we had to change the color scheme, because the greys were really hard to see with mostly low probs in play.
- There were situations when the contour overlay blocked out the radar
- It did key in on the strongest storms in Idaho, which was ~36%. Perhaps a separate color scheme for the west would be necessary.
- Was great for situational awareness, providing a broad view of the whole cwa. If you have many storms, it helps me to key in on which storms I want to investigate first
- I used it quite a bit in Florida. It did a good job of showing storms that produced weather. I issued 5 or 6 SVS’s based on prob severe, instead of all tilts. It really did a good job of honing in on the relevant storms without looking at all the base data. 60 dbz at -20 when probsevere already up to 90
- Every storm that did damage had a probsevere around 90, around same time you would see a warning (Tampa). Looking at base data, would not have issued any earlier, probably less lead time with more marginal cases.
- Unrealistically high mesh in FL
- While at the lower probs, the satellite fields helped me to identify which storms were growing fast. The increasing trends, even low, told me to keep monitoring. The descriptors were helpful, especially the sat growth, qualitative ones.
- Once probs got high, it did a great job of discriminating. We had a couple high probs that produced severe.
- Use the time tendency trend in probs as guidance to perhaps issue, or prepare warning.
- Trend perhaps is just as or more important than absolute values
Lightning jump
PGLM
- I was seeing more LMA than eni lightning (very low levels of lightning), and seeing LMA first – out west in boulder
