Scattered Storms in ABQ CWA

Still monitoring storms across the ABQ area, but thus far they have been pulsing up and down with little maintenance. Here is a broad look at the area with ProbSevere overlayed on the radar.

The strongest storm is over the far southeastern part of the CWA, with a ProbSevere value around 77%. But looking at radar data, within the hail growth zone, seeing limited indications of severe hail. That is matched by the MRMS MESH output of right around 1". Have not issued a warning for that storm at this point. -SRF

Initial Setup for LBB

Today we are set up as WFO LBB in north central TX.  Water vapor imagery (upper left in image below) shows large upper low centered over the four corners region with broad cyclonic flow across NM/TX with plenty of dry air moving into the forecast area.  Visible imagery shows some general clearing across the area as thicker clouds moved out of the area from this morning.  Expect convection to develop later this afternoon as atmosphere destabilizes across the region with hail and damaging winds as the main threat. An initial look at the CI product (lower left in image below) is showing mainly low probabilities of initiation across the LBB CWA but there have been some higher probabilities to the west over NM closer to the core of the upper low where lapse rates are steeper and associated with the colder air aloft.

Looking at the GOES-R LAP precipitable water data the significant dry air is located in the 700-300mb level (lower left in the below image) which matches up well with RAP analysis soundings.    Not much on the radar this point to look at but will be monitor for developing convection.

Jack Bauer

NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere in ABQ

Today the forecast teams are in the ABQ, AMA, and LBB WFOs.  The Texas WFOs will likely have scattered severe storms develop a bit later this afternoon.  In ABQ, upslope flow combined with forcing for ascent by the incoming upper level low triggered thunderstorm growth early Tuesday afternoon.  The NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere model helped the ABQ forecasters decide to issue a warning around 1830 UTC (although technical issues preventd the warning from being issued).  Figure 1 shows an animation of MRMS composite reflectivity and ProbSevere output of the storm of interest, as well as another storm a bit further north later intensified.  The forecaster mentioned they liked how the ProbSevere model diagnosed moderate satellite cooling rates and glaciation rates, which helped provide good lead-time and how neighboring weaker storms had considerably lower probabilities, which increased confidence.

Figure 1.  NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere model and MRMS composite reflectivity valid 1816 - 1842 UTC 05 May 2015 over the southern ABQ WFO.  

-Sieglaff

Setting Up in ABQ

Currently in the process of setting up in ABQ CWA for the afternoon and will provide a little bit of an overview.  Water Vapor imagery is showing a disutrbance shifting east across eastern New Mexico, as seen in the image below.

Already seeing convection over the area, both coming off the mountains and associated with the upper disturbance and also over the far eastern part of the cwa along the surface trough stretching south-southeast from the low in southeast Colorado.  While the convection coming off the higher terrain was already mature, the convective initiation product did pick up on the development of newer convection farther to the south and east of KROW.

As the storms continue to the east and into the higher instability shown on the GOES Sounder LAP CAPE, would expect the intensity of the storms to increase.

Finally, here is a look at the radar from 1842Z showing both of the areas of convection. Before developing this post, was planning on issuing a warning on a cell to the southwest of Mesa, NM, but technical issues with the Text Workstation inhibited the issuance. In the decision process, used the ProbSevere data to add confidence (increasing from 5% to 77% in about 15min) to the higher cores seen on the radar data.

SRF

Initial thoughts on convection for AMA

GOES-R/CIMMS CAPE values continue to increase across southeastern portions of the Albuquerque, NM, area towards the southwestern portions of the AMA CWA. Values are not markedly high, on the order of 400-500 J/KG, but skies continue to clear in the wake of convection earlier this morning allowing for greater destabilization later this afternoon.

The UAH GOES-R convective initiation probabilities continue to also increase for southeastern portions of the ABQ CWA and southern portions of the AMA CWA. Reflectivities remain weak moving northeast in the southern AMA CWA, but expect coverage to increase as the storms move into the more favorable environment.

Brick Tamland

Starting the day in ABQ

I'll be starting out the day in ABQ. There is a short wave rotating through the region and convection has already fired off the higher terrain and is moving towards the NE. The GOES-R LAP CAPE and LI are enhanced in this area.

Interestingly, there has been very few CG lightning strikes with the stronger cells.

Time to go load up more data.

-V. Darkbloom

Pre Storm Environment

Briefing and water vapor loop showed short wave crossing north central New Mexico. Drying on Water vapor loop lines up with the clearing on the leading edge of the short wave. Better indications of CI in far sw CWA. CAPES have increased to near 1100 J/KG just south of the forecast area. Have DTA  set up and awaiting the next pass for NUCAPS availability.

Lynford

Lubbock CWA Conditions

My warning operations will focus over the Lubbock CWA this afternoon.  Clearing of this morning's cloud cover began to occur around 1830 UTC.  A cumulus field has quickly developed in the areas which cleared.  I will be watching the GOES CI Probability in this region as instability continues to increase.  GOES LAP CAPE values through the CWA range from 500 to 1000 J/kg, with some spotty areas of up to 1100 J/kg.

Daily Summary: Week 1 Day 1 (May 4, 2015)

Today marked the first day of the EWP Spring Experiment in the Hazardous Weather Testbed in Norman, OK. This year, 5 NWS forecasters and 1 broadcast meteorologist will evaluate various GOES-R and JPSS algorithms, as well as Earth Networks total lightning products. Participants, working in pairs, will use the experimental products to issue area forecast discussions and severe thunderstorm/tornado warnings for their designated CWA. All of the products being demonstrated are available in AWIPS-II.

Much of the focus for the first day of the week was hands-on training for each of the products under evaluation. After some initial familiarization with AWIPS-II and procedure building, the various PI's worked with forecasters on how to interpret the products, and what to look for during the week. Forecasters also became familiar with saving images, and posting to the blog. By the end of the day, participants had already made several informative blog posts.

We began today's operations in the Topeka, Omaha, and Midland CWA's. As activity subsided in the Omaha CWA, that pair moved operations to the Wichita CWA. Participants were able to utilize all of the products today, including the PGLM total lightning from the West Texas LMA.

Tomorrow, we will start activities at 12:00 pm in the Dev Lab for the daily debrief before moving to the HWT for the 12:45 EFP briefing. Operations will likely take place in West Texas.

- Bill Line, SPC/HWT Satellite Liaison and Week 1 EWP Coordinator

Feedback from Daily Debrief:

GOES-R LAP products
- I looked at CAPE and TPW mostly
- DCAPE would be helpful to have, if possible
- The gradients in these fields were most helpful, not so much the absolute values.

NUCAPS
- I liked it and thought it was useful to have today. My office is in between RAOB sites, so it would be nice to have this additional environmental information.
- It would be nice to have automated surface modifications so that I don't have to waste time doing it myself. It is too time intensive, especially during warning operations
- I would like QC flags for each of the individual soundings to know which ones I should trust most.

GOES-R CI
- Today, I used it moreso after the fact
- There were a couple of cases where it worked well. One exampele was an 80% probability, and those cells blew up an hour or so later.
- In Topeka, there were a lot of thicker cirrus, so it was not effective.
- Further to the south in Oklahoma, it did well. 80% probabilities continued to develop into convection
- The display covered up too much of the imagery that I wanted to see.

ProbSevere
- I liked the readout, seeing the various fields was helpful.
- It might be a good idea to include Dual Pol fields in the future, specifically ZDR.
- In my situation, cells were pretty small, so I wish the contour had been a little thinner in this case as it covered up too much of the cell. I made it transparent so I could still see the cell.

Lightning Jump
- Of all the ENI lightning products, I found this to be most useful. It was easy to use, it broguht my attention to the relevant storms, and showed transitions in intensity.
- I had one situation where lightning increased rapidly with a newly developing storm, but no jump was recorded.
- It was pretty successful in indicating rapid intensification.
- I liked having it as a confidence booster.

Convective Initiation in Southwest Kansas

Looking at the Convective initiation product over southwest Kansas in an area where the earlier cirrus had cleared out showed some enhanced probabilities in the 60-70% range at 2000 UTC over Hodegman county, KS.

 At that time there was not any radar returns showing up in that part of the county where the CI was identified.  When looking at the radar imagery at 2045 UTC there was new convection that had developed across northeastern Hodgeman county.  I think this is a great example of the benefit of the CI product and how it does especially well in environments where only cumulus cloud development is occurring.

I think this can be a very useful product in the WFO, especially in offices where pulse convection can be a problem, such as the eastern United States.

Jack Bauer